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The evidence below, to me, holds out a good possibility of a bounce, either here or as the main indices reach their 200-day MAs. I would not be surprised with range-bound behavior though as negative divergences on Breadth and MACD continue to suggest weakening upwards momentum.
QQQ, SPY, and DIA all hovering on their 50-day MAs and all with MACD Negative Divergences on their weekly charts.
Almost all the indices ended the week with price touching a major moving average which could function as support except IWM and GLD. Both of those could be at price support as they come down to the bottom of the trading range. Both also have suffered the Death Cross with the 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA and price below both MAs. On the plus side, IWM has a MACD histogram positive divergence on the daily chart.
TLT making headway back on the upward trend.
No change to the economic indicators. They are all pointed UP. Waiting on new consumer confidence numbers Tuesday.
The S&P500 P/E Valuation holding up the base of the bubble zone.
The Put/Call Ratio headed back to center, making no signal.
The VIX came almost up to the level where the last pullback ended but is no where near the point where we often find it at the end of a pullback.
Breadth remains a dangerous situation with an ongoing negative divergence on the McClellan Summation Index.
The corporate/treasury yield spread held up fine. It's function is similar to a canary in a coal mine - I only worry if it keels over.
The Divergence Count Indicator (DCI) with enough individual stocks with positive divergences to consider the buying window open. This indicator should NEVER be used without stop losses!
The intra-day 60 min scans rallied with almost 200 positive divergences early in the day Friday. See http://divergence-alerts.com/intras-dci-plots/ Historically this has resulted in a better than average chance of a higher market within 4 days.
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